Each method uses the chance to hit as a fraction of a hit. Thus, if you need a 4+ to hit that is 50% or a half hit per die. Thus 2 dice would be 1 hit per turn and 3 dice would be 1.5 hits per turn… and so on.

The only strange bit is for more chaos. Any double damage simply doubles the likelihood of scoring a hit. So, if you need a 5+ to hit, that equates to a 2 in 6 chance to hit. If you get to do double damage, the chance to hit would be 4 in 6. That equates to a 3,4,5 or 6. (ie 3+).

Hope that helps and sorry for the delay!

John

]]>One question though, could you explain the probability analysis in all versions: original, Kobold and yours? If it’s not too much to ask? It’s been years since I took a class on probabilities, and I don’t follow your numbers. Thanks 🙂

]]>Thanks for your help. ]]>

I admit that the maths leaves me flummoxed but I am happy to take your word for it. :0)

Re. the blank cards at the moment each army has its own set of chance cards.

5 of the 15 chance cards have no effect on either army, 5 affect the army negatively and 5 positively.

Are you suggesting adding 5 more no effect cards? I’d be happy to do that if only because 20 cards are easier to shuffle than 15!

]]>Good question. I suppose the straight forward way would be to simply cause 1 hit instead of 1-3 hits. Technically, on the average, you are causing .4 hits. If you want, you could roll a die instead and on a 4-6 (not exact odds but close!) a hit is caused. Personally, I’d just go with the automatic single hit.

On a side note, you can also add the same number of blank cards that you have chance cards. That way, about half the turns, nothing good/bad will happen.

Hope that helped.

John

Found this post yesterday and started using the ‘More Chaos’ idea.

I play solo and use the Chance Cards that NT writes about on p.130.

I’ve just drawn a 13 which means that 1-3 units remove 1-3 hit points. My particular army has one unit with a yellow marker for one hit out of 3 allowed. How do I interpret the Chance Card to reflect a 1-3 hits out of 15, please?

Sorry to ask but I am new to wargaming although I have already found that I don’t like rosters!

Cheers

In my basic mechanism you say that the doubling and halving remains the same. Actually it doesn’t. In my 1,2 and 3 dice system with 5 hits, I double the dice rolled for any advantage where NT doubles the hits. For anything which halves the results I apply a 4+ save on the hits instead. Obviously this does fiddle with the odds compared to the original rules; it’s possible for a unit in cover to take full hits as if the cover wasn’t there, for example, but conversely it’s possible for it to take a big hit and receive no damage. Essentially there’s more chaos, which I like.

The downside of my mechanism is a lack of granularity. In a GNW set I produced I dealt with this by simply doubling the number of dice rolled (2, 4 and 6) and increasing hits to 10. This allowed me to do the equivalent of 1D6-1 and 1D6+1 in the NT rules, and worked fine for what I was trying to achieve. I have used a different approach in the ECW rules I’ve been playing with for the past year, trying to boil everything down to adjusted rolls of 2D6 only, but in this case I’m straying well away from the original NT setup.

I like your Multiples of 3 system; the inability to halve my 4+ roll was an annoyance to me, as it meant I had to have the separae save roll. Your system factors it into the main roll very nicely. I may try it sometime – 3+ to hit as the basic, 5+ if one save applies and 6+ if two apply.

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